於世为，李震西A real option model for geothermal heating investment decision making: Considering carbon trading and resource taxes

我校经济与管理学院於世为老师团队在T1级别期刊——《ENERGY》上发表题为“A real option model for geothermal heating investment decision making: Considering carbon trading and resource taxes”论文。论文第一作者於世为为金沙8888js官方教授，博士生导师。

全文链接：https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544219319474

ABSTRACT：By considering carbon trading and resource tax, this study established a bidimensional binominal lattice of a compound real option pricing model to help investors make decisions for geothermal heating projects. Two types of real options, to defer and to abandon, are simultaneously considered. Further, a case study on the decision making for a geothermal heating project in the Xiongan New Area in China was conducted to verify the feasibility of the proposed model. The results show that 1) the investors should delay the “invest-decision” at least one year under the real option rule but that investment value would at least 0.9 times more than that by the net present value method; 2) different subsidies methods could influence the investment time and project value, and one-time subsidies may lead to larger project value but delay the investment time; 3) The project value could be increased by conducting carbon trading but could be reduced by resource tax implementation; and 4) the value of option to defer is negatively sensitive to the initial fossil fuel price, but the value of the option to abandon is positively sensitive to the volatility of carbon price.

KEYWORDS：Real option; Carbon trading; Resources tax; Geothermal heating project; Bidimensional binominal lattice;

JOURNAL：Energy

DOI：10.1016/j.energy.2019.116252

YEAR：2019

PUBLISHER：Elsevier Ltd